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Interstate Trip Risk (US)

Calculate injury risk for your road trip using statistical models

Both values are displayed; this highlights your selection

Route Analysis

Distance
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Travel Time
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Interstate/Highway Share --

Injury Risk Estimate

Vehicle Occupants

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Rate: --

All Road Users

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Rate: --
How is this calculated? ▼

Poisson Model: We use a Poisson distribution to model the probability of injury events occurring over a given distance. The Poisson distribution is appropriate for modeling rare, independent events.

lambda = rate_per_mile × distance_miles
P(injury) = 1 - e^(-lambda)
one_in = 1 / P(injury)

Injury Rates (per mile):

  • All road users: 7.5 × 10⁻⁷
  • Vehicle occupants only: 6.8 × 10⁻⁷

Disclaimer: These rates are based on US Interstate highway statistics and are provided for educational purposes only. Actual risk varies based on many factors including weather, time of day, vehicle condition, driver behavior, and traffic conditions. This calculator should not be used to make travel decisions.

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Map data © OpenStreetMap contributors. Data available under the ODbL.

This tool is for educational purposes only. Do not use for actual travel planning decisions.